Just how good can LaMelo Ball be?
Just how good can LaMelo Ball be?
The Hornets' star is already one of the most exciting players in the NBA, but can he actually be the best offensive player on a championship team?
Standing at a height of 6 feet and 7 inches, there's no shortage of reasons to be excited about 20-year-old LaMelo Ball's potential. From Magic Johnson right down to the 2021 first overall pick, Cade Cunningham, the prospect of having a jumbo-sized guard oozing with passing talent to run your offense through has had organizations foaming at the mouth, and understandably so: it's the most valuable archetype of player to build your team around. So the hype around LaMelo is certainly justified, but is there more to it beneath the surface? Is the impressive stat line of nearly 20 points, 8 assists, and 7 rebounds he put up last season truly reflective of his talent? And can LaMelo Ball really be the best offensive player on a championship caliber team?
Transition Passing: LaMelo's Showtime
The obvious draw with the Hornets' all-star, and the only place it makes any sense to begin an analysis of his game with, is his passing ability. Ball is a passing prodigy, and his skills shine brightest in the open floor, where his great foot speed and tremendous vision in transition allow him to set up his teammates before the opposing defense can properly set. The Hornets ranked 2nd among all NBA teams during the 2021-22 season for points per game scored in transition, and LaMelo was the biggest reason why:
One feature of LaMelo's passing game that sets him apart from almost all NBA players is the way he can exploit tiny fleeting gaps in the opposing defense:
On the defensive end, LaMelo is elite in passing lanes and this allows him to turn defense into offense for his team at a high level.
In the clip below, LaMelo sags off towards the corner to give the ball handler the impression that the passing lane is clear then immediately lunges to steal the ball and launch a transition attack:
As a testament to his ability to run the floor and push the tempo in transition, the Hornets played at a pace of 100.94 with LaMelo on the court, good for 3rd in the entire league, and 97.53 with him off the court, which would make Charlotte only the 23rd fastest team in the NBA.
Transition is so prominent a feature of LaMelo's game that he was selected to pose as the legendary Magic Johnson, maestro of LA's Showtime transition offense, as part of the NBA's 75th anniversary commercial.
Like the Lakers' vaunted point guard, LaMelo's height unlocks more passing opportunities, given that he's able to see over traps and over the top of the defense in general:
While LaMelo isn't a great advantage creator at the moment, he's one of the best in the league at hitting cutters, particularly apt to do so because of his uncanny ability to fit passes through the tightest windows:
Of course, like any elite passer, sometimes these dishes aren't timed well enough, or the delivery is too hot and the pass just misfires into a turnover. This isn't unexpected, though: attempting so many high leverage passes is naturally fraught with risk so it's inevitable that many of these won't pan out. But LaMelo is already so gifted that most of these end up being great looks for his teammates, which more than makes up for the erroneous passes.
LaMelo is also a great passer without the ball in his hands, and this particular trait is crucial because it allows him to retain value next to other high-level players, capable of effectively maintaining advantages for his team:
He also has quiet moments of genius off the ball. In the clip below, LaMelo makes the cut knowing the defense will collapse and signals to Bouknight that he should feed Oubre's hot hand – Oubre had just drained three consecutive 3s in that game. Unfortunately though, Bouknight commits an offensive foul:
To sum up, LaMelo is an elite playmaker in transition who can exploit holes in opposing defenses better than just about 99% of NBA players.
As for Ball's half court game, specifically his pick-and-roll passing, this is where things begin to fall off a little.
Half Court Playmaking: More Padawan than Jedi
While we saw that LaMelo's fast-paced game is very well suited for transition play, it is much less effective in the half court, particularly in the pick-and-roll, due to the lack of adaptability in LaMelo's pace. In other words, he plays nearly as fast in the half court as he does in transition and has trouble controlling his own pace, and the pace of the game in general, at a high level.
While there are many factors that go into pick-and-roll efficiency (in fairness, he hasn't played with an elite roller yet), LaMelo as the pick and roll ball handler generated a meagre 0.79 points per possession, which lands him in the 35th percentile in the league. On film, it's clear why: LaMelo tends to play with an overwhelming lack of patience.
In the first place, he has a tendency to bolt off of screens without taking the appropriate time to slow down and process all of his options. Take the play below for example: he immediately darts off the pick and doesn't slow down to survey the floor well enough and he misses what could have been an elite kickout to PJ Washington. Instead, his pre-determined skip pass is easily picked up by Tatum:
The same issue presents itself in the play below: if he had slowed his pace after getting by Portis off the catch, he could've read Thanasis better and produced a clean look for Hayward above the arc.
In the next clip, Ball once again speeds off the screen, jumps into the air and gets into his shooting motion before he's even scanned the floor, panics when he realizes the Celtics are switching, and commits a travelling violation while flinging away a pass in desperation. Once again the lack of patience is glaring: the turnover is easily avoided if he doesn’t rush off the screen and takes extra dribbles to read the Celtics’ switching and process the situation better to react accordingly.
Playing so frenetically can give him difficulty against traps, as below where Ball is completely blindsided by a double team. It's hard to see the purpose of playing with such excessive speed:
Below, it’s the same movie yet again: LaMelo – you guessed it – rushes off the screen and immediately picks up his dribble to dump off the ball to Plumlee. The problem is that by not taking any extra dribbles in the lane, he's not forcing Jokic to commit to him at all, leading to a turnover:
Again, it's clear LaMelo isn't even looking to score, and the lack of pressure on Claxton results in yet another pre-determined pass that ends up going the other way:
Instead of reading what the defense is giving him, LaMelo frequently forces pre-selected reads. But in doing so he's bailing out his opponent, since they know he's already limited his own options.
No doubt this is also linked to a deep aversion to contact on his part: he actively avoids contact on almost any given drive (more on that below), and since he doesn't probe deep into the paint or get all the way to the basket for fear of absorbing a hit, the result is a very low pressure pick-and-roll attack from the ball handler; it's hard to create good looks for your teammates if you aren't willing to probe down low and force reactions from opposing defenders.
Contrast this with plays where he's more controlled and patient, and it results in cleaner looks for his teammates (Bridges injudiciously passes up a wide open three off the catch):
Notice how the two weak side defenders are on their heels, trying to guess what LaMelo's next move will be.
Now, LaMelo is still capable of pulling off some dazzling dimes in the pick and roll: he's elite at these tight-window pocket and skip passes, can make use of crafty shot fakes to manipulate defenders, and handles traps effectively the majority of the time:
The flashes displayed above are just too tantalizing to give up on him as a pick—and-roll initiator. Still, as things currently stand, this area of his game leaves much to be desired. As the play-in games testified, the lack of scoring pressure, patience and probing is a concerning indicator for how LaMelo would fare in a playoff setting, when the game slows down and half court play is critical. In his defense, LaMelo's development has been significantly marginalized by the Hornets and he clearly suffers from a lack of initiating reps. I’m willing to bet that many of these issues can be fixed, but while the Hornets' point guard has work to do on his own, the organization certainly isn't doing him any favours at the moment.
Scoring: Beyond the Box Score
Last season, LaMelo averaged 20.1 points on 55.4% true shooting, a mark just 1.2% below league average; not too shabby for a sophomore.
The highlight of his scoring game at the moment is the elite shooting touch he’s displayed. LaMelo shot 39% from 3 on nearly 8 attempts per game. An even more promising indicator is the 87% he drained from the free throw line, a stark improvement from last season and a good gauge of his shooting ability. LaMelo's quick release aids his shooting proficiency off the catch, where he recorded a terrific 42.5% on 4.4 attempts per game. Such numbers are very exciting indeed, particularly because they indicate that he'd fit well on offense next to other ball dominant stars.
Beyond that, however, LaMelo's scoring traits haven't been quite as encouraging.
The stand out weakness in his scoring game at the moment is his finishing: he shot just 54% at the rim last season – the same as his rookie year – which landed him in the 20th percentile among point guards. This is jarring when one remembers Ball is 6'7 and most other point guards tend to be smaller. The problem here is LaMelo's lack of strength, balance and body control, most probably responsible for him being unwilling to take contact at the rim. Additionally, the inability to control pace that we had discussed earlier carries over to his scoring game, where he doesn't really decelerate effectively when approaching the basket; all of this results in slew of fruitless layup attempts:
LaMelo's balance and body control are quite poor at the moment:
Help at the nail tends to bother his dribble quite a bit and force him to pick it up immediately, preventing him from getting all the way to the rim.
At times he picks up his dribble before even crossing the free throw line:
Powering through contact isn’t much of an option either given his lack of core strength. Defenders often throw him off balance:
His unwillingness to take contact is displayed by the fact that despite being in the 95th percentile for drives per 75 possessions, he draws a foul on just 4% of his drives. This aversion to contact translates into questionable shot selection, where LaMelo opts for long, low-percentage floaters for fear of challenging defenders at the basket:
Many of these things can certainly be improved upon – he’s only 21 after all. Adding some weight should theoretically resolve some of the finishing woes and improve his overall efficiency.
As an isolation scorer, Ball currently isn't very proficient, mostly because he doesn't have a ton of effective scoring counters. He’s flashed stepback potential, shooting 39% from downtown last season for this type of shot according to NBA.com (albeit on low volume). If he can develop a consistent stepback, that may unlock more driving lanes for him as well, though counters will be the key. For now though, he's not much of a self creator.
What should we make of all this?
LaMelo remains one of the most intriguing players in the NBA. He possesses a rare combination of size, vision, passing ability and shooting touch that makes him as tantalizing as he is. He's already put up big numbers at just 20 years old, but as I've already suggested, these raw box score stats likely overstate his actual offensive ability at the moment.
While many have rightly complained about LaMelo's lack of on-ball reps and relatively subdued role on offense, it's somewhat contradictory to simultaneously credit him the leader of an offense that finished 8th in the league: LaMelo functioned a lot more like a cog within a system rather than the engine of the system this past season. While he does still have many big areas to improve on, I don't think he's being given a fair chance to properly develop to the full extent of his capabilities – the Hornets aren't maximizing his potential as a 6'7 point guard with elite passing ability.
Nonetheless, I believe LaMelo's strong suits make him more fit to operate in a secondary role on offense, like a Jason Kidd type who likely won't be a strong enough offensive player to be the main guy but would fare much better complementing a high-end scorer and advantage creator – someone who can set him up for easier looks in the half court while the more promising elements of his game (perimeter shooting, connective and transition passing) can shine forth, unburdened by a heavy offensive load. I also believe that his size, vision, and passing skill are just too promising not to invest in him as a pick-and-roll facilitator, though this would require more trust in him from the organization – and lots of work on LaMelo's end too. Now entering year three of a promising career, the young star is due for a big season.